Quarterly Report – Global outlook and forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2026

During the third quarter, tensions in the Middle East remained a key risk factor, but their impact on the global economy was more limited than initially expected. Despite volatility in energy prices, economic growth did not experience any significant slowdown.

The global economy continues to demonstrate strong resilience. In the United States, the labor market remains robust and corporate earnings continue to be satisfactory, while in Europe both macroeconomic indicators and business sentiment have improved. As a result, economic growth has successfully absorbed both the energy shock and higher interest rates.

Inflationary pressures remain present and have led central banks to maintain a cautious approach. The Federal Reserve has adopted a more restrictive stance, while the ECB continues to closely monitor price developments. The overall environment remains consistent with elevated interest rates persisting for an extended period.

Investment in artificial intelligence continues to be a major driver of economic expansion and financial market performance. However, the increasing concentration of capital flows into the sector and the rising leverage of some market participants warrant close attention to the long-term sustainability of this trend.

Equity markets remain supported by economic growth and the AI theme, but performance continues to be concentrated in a limited number of large technology companies. In contrast, many other sectors and geographic regions offer more attractive valuations following recent market corrections. In fixed income markets, higher yields have improved the attractiveness of bonds, although the environment remains uncertain.

The U.S. dollar continues to benefit from the Federal Reserve's tighter monetary policy and elevated yields. Commodity markets remain primarily influenced by geopolitical developments and interest rate expectations, with particular attention focused on the oil market.

The overall environment remains supportive of risk assets, underpinned by resilient economic growth and the ongoing support provided by artificial intelligence-related investment. Nevertheless, elevated interest rates, persistent inflation, and the strong concentration of market performance suggest maintaining a disciplined and well-diversified investment approach, with particular attention to developments in inflation, labor markets, and the long-term sustainability of AI-related investments.